Quantitative Analysis of Arrests in Eau Claire county and proximity to bars

Disorderly Conducts report

 

                City residents have recently been complaining about the nature of the students in the town of Eau Claire. Students are loud, obnoxious and disturb the peace. My job as an independent researcher is to map the disorderly conduct violations around Eau Claire for the years 2003 to 2009. With this data police officers will be able to see if areas that have liquor and beer available are higher in disorderly conduct reports. We can also set patrols for police officers in the areas more prone to disorderly conduct to hopefully cut down the amount of disruption. With the information supplied to me by the city of Eau Claire I will be able to set up patrol routes for police as well as areas that need a heavy police force presence.

 

Areas In Need of Police Presence

                In order to find out the areas that are in need of a heavy police influence it was necessary to geocode all the disorderly conduct reports that were reported in the years 2003 and 2009 these are the main arresting charges that are placed on intoxicated individuals. Using the disorderly conduct report from 2003 and 2009 it was possible to find the mean center of the area. The mean center is the area that is strictly in the middle of the highest concentration, theoretically it is the highest area of arrests in this case. The weighted mean center is the mean center with an attached outlier that will change the data slightly to an area that may be having an effect on the data, in this case, the bars in Eau Claire are the weight attached to the mean center.

 

                Once the mean center and the weighted mean center has been established a standard distance would be necessary to establish a proximity around the mean center the standard distance uses data to project a radius around projected points in standard deviation. This will be a hot arrest zone where arrests are more likely to happen in Eau Claire. This was established by using the arrest records from 2003 and 2009 respectively.

 

 

Chloropleth Map of  High Importence Areas

                Also created was a standard deviation chloropleth map containing the mean center of bars in Eau Claire. The standard deviation chloropleth map was used in order to create a probability area based on calculated z-scores. Z- Scores are a way to normalize data and create probability. The z- scores calculated were for 3 bars, based on the PolyID field these were 57, 46 and 41. Z score is calculated by using the observed data subtract by the mean and divided by the standard deviation. The calculations were zone 41 had an arrest percentage of 58% so disorderly conduct was possible to happen in zone 41. Zone 57 had a negative arrest rate of -56% so disorderly conduct was very unlikely to occur in this area. Zone 46 however had an incredible 445% arrest rate meaning disorderly conduct was incredibly likely to occur in this area.

Using the data that was provided by the Eau Claire City the conclusion that the area most likely to have disorderly conduct was present in zone 46 of the chloropleth map with regards to the z- score that calculated. This correlates with the mean centers created with the 2003 and 2009 arrest data. While the mean centers project the average area that arrests are taking place it would be more accurate to use the weighted mean centers since they correlate with the amount of bars in the area which projects a shift to the water street area, this is the area that is very high in disorderly conduct arrests which in turn should suggest that a high amount of police force will be required in this area. While the water street area is high in arrests it would also be beneficial to look at the weighted standard distance maps in order to create a patrol route for the officers. This is the area that should be patrolled in order to ensure the safety of the Eau Claire citizens since this is the standard deviation where disorderly conducts occur.

                In conclusion, The amount of arrests in Eau Claire directly correlate to the amount of alcohol that is served, using the weighted mean centers and standard distance models we were able to find the area that is highest in disorderly conducts as well as the area surrounding it. This will be beneficial in order to create patrol routes for officers to follow and enforce the law. This information also allows us to correlate the amount of officers that we have in order to efficiently use them to our advantage and keep the city safer. A higher amount of police presence in the standard distance area should help to drastically cut down on the disorderly conducts that occur and will help to bring peace to the city.