Quantitative Analysis of Arrests in Eau Claire county and proximity to bars

Disorderly Conducts report

 

                City residents have recently been complaining about the nature of the students in the town of Eau Claire. Students are loud, obnoxious and disturb the peace. My job as an independent researcher is to map the disorderly conduct violations around Eau Claire for the years 2003 to 2009. With this data police officers will be able to see if areas that have liquor and beer available are higher in disorderly conduct reports. We can also set patrols for police officers in the areas more prone to disorderly conduct to hopefully cut down the amount of disruption. With the information supplied to me by the city of Eau Claire I will be able to set up patrol routes for police as well as areas that need a heavy police force presence.

 

Areas In Need of Police Presence

                In order to find out the areas that are in need of a heavy police influence it was necessary to geocode all the disorderly conduct reports that were reported in the years 2003 and 2009 these are the main arresting charges that are placed on intoxicated individuals. Using the disorderly conduct report from 2003 and 2009 it was possible to find the mean center of the area. The mean center is the area that is strictly in the middle of the highest concentration, theoretically it is the highest area of arrests in this case. The weighted mean center is the mean center with an attached outlier that will change the data slightly to an area that may be having an effect on the data, in this case, the bars in Eau Claire are the weight attached to the mean center.

 

                Once the mean center and the weighted mean center has been established a standard distance would be necessary to establish a proximity around the mean center the standard distance uses data to project a radius around projected points in standard deviation. This will be a hot arrest zone where arrests are more likely to happen in Eau Claire. This was established by using the arrest records from 2003 and 2009 respectively.

 

 

Chloropleth Map of  High Importence Areas

                Also created was a standard deviation chloropleth map containing the mean center of bars in Eau Claire. The standard deviation chloropleth map was used in order to create a probability area based on calculated z-scores. Z- Scores are a way to normalize data and create probability. The z- scores calculated were for 3 bars, based on the PolyID field these were 57, 46 and 41. Z score is calculated by using the observed data subtract by the mean and divided by the standard deviation. The calculations were zone 41 had an arrest percentage of 58% so disorderly conduct was possible to happen in zone 41. Zone 57 had a negative arrest rate of -56% so disorderly conduct was very unlikely to occur in this area. Zone 46 however had an incredible 445% arrest rate meaning disorderly conduct was incredibly likely to occur in this area.

Using the data that was provided by the Eau Claire City the conclusion that the area most likely to have disorderly conduct was present in zone 46 of the chloropleth map with regards to the z- score that calculated. This correlates with the mean centers created with the 2003 and 2009 arrest data. While the mean centers project the average area that arrests are taking place it would be more accurate to use the weighted mean centers since they correlate with the amount of bars in the area which projects a shift to the water street area, this is the area that is very high in disorderly conduct arrests which in turn should suggest that a high amount of police force will be required in this area. While the water street area is high in arrests it would also be beneficial to look at the weighted standard distance maps in order to create a patrol route for the officers. This is the area that should be patrolled in order to ensure the safety of the Eau Claire citizens since this is the standard deviation where disorderly conducts occur.

                In conclusion, The amount of arrests in Eau Claire directly correlate to the amount of alcohol that is served, using the weighted mean centers and standard distance models we were able to find the area that is highest in disorderly conducts as well as the area surrounding it. This will be beneficial in order to create patrol routes for officers to follow and enforce the law. This information also allows us to correlate the amount of officers that we have in order to efficiently use them to our advantage and keep the city safer. A higher amount of police presence in the standard distance area should help to drastically cut down on the disorderly conducts that occur and will help to bring peace to the city.

 

Scientific Writing example

 *note, I am in no way affiliated with CDC, I am posting this as my ability to comprehend scientific writing to a general audience.

  Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
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Backgrounder
February 15/2014

What are Immunizations?

                There exists two kinds of immunizations, natural immunizations and vaccinations. Natural immunizations are the process where an individual’s immune system becomes fortified against an outside agent otherwise known as an immunogen. When the human body is first exposed to an unknown immunogen it will develop a response to neutralize the immunogen which is then stored in the human cells memory as an immunological memory to create an adaptive immune system. This way the body can protect itself against future foreign immunogens.  Vaccinations are introduced to the human body in a form of active immunization to prepare the immune system to create antibodies and other defenses against immunogens, when the body comes in contact with an immunogen it will then be able to counteract the disease quickly. This breakthrough in active immunizations has been so great that the CDC has named it one of the “Ten Greatest Public Health Achievements in the 20^th Century”

Why Should I get immunized?

                 Immunizations are a safe and effective way to fight potentially fatal diseases.  In 1962 the United States had 503,282 cases and 432 deaths of the disease morbilli otherwise known as measles. Measles attack the respiratory system and causes fever, cough, runny nose and skin rash it is highly contagious with a 90% chance that a non-immune person in close proximity will develop measles leading to epidemics that were seen in the 60’s. 

The number of Measles cases in The UK and Wales from 1980-2008, notice the date in 1997 as the rise of deaths increase due to Wakefield’s fraudulent research
Source:  http://www.republicanhour.com/wp-content/plugins/akismet/measles-vaccine-history-i9.png

 

                In 1963 the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine was introduced. This three in one vaccine protects against three life threatening diseases. By 1978 the reported cases of measles dropped from 503,282 in 1962 to 26,871 and was targeted for elimination in the United States by 1982. The irradiation of measles did not meet the 1982 deadline in the United States and is still on the list for the Carter Center International Task Force for Disease Eradication. Many causes have attributed to the remaining cases of measles namely the fear of autism caused by immunization.

 

 

Do Immunizations Cause Autism?

                In 1998 former Dr. Andrew Wakefield proposed a controversial research study where he proposed that autism spectrum disorders have a possible connection with the MMR vaccine. Namely with the mercury containing organic compound present in the vaccine called Thimerosal. Thimerosal was used as a preservative in many biological and drug products including vaccinations. Wakefield recommended that immunization should be postponed for a year. The coverage from this controversial statement is what has been deemed responsible for the decrease in immunizations in the UK (see figure one).  Upon a 2009 investigation it was revealed that Wakefield changed and misreported results from his research to create the impression that MMR and Thimerosal cause autism. By May 2010 the British General Medical Council concluded Wakefield had engaged in serious medical misconduct and had his medical license revoked.

                Autism is estimated to inflict 1 in every 88 children and due to Wakefield’s study linking Thimerosal used as a preservative it was removed or reduced to minute trace amounts in all childhood vaccines. The CDC reports that according to several studies following the vaccines uses that autism frequency did not change from the removal of Thimerosal. Hence there is no relationship between vaccines and autism rates.

Why are people not immunizing today?

                The Anti-Vaccination Movement (AVM) is a group of individuals composed of former doctors, celebrities and other members of society who link Thimerosal citing Wakefield’s research. The AVM believes that Thimerosal has caused autism. Because of the celebrity status that some members have they promote anti vaccination rhetoric on the media. This has led to an increase in the number of vaccine preventable illnesses.

What are the side effects of Immunizations?

Side effects, although rare, are present in immunizations. The CDC lists the side effects of immunizations from mild to severe. Mild reactions are common since the introduction of the antibodies present in the immunization will give symptoms present to what it is immunizing. Mild symptoms are fever, mild rash and swelling of glands. These are not life threatening and will subside by themselves. Moderate problems are seizures and low platelet count which can cause bleeding disorders. These are rare (1 in 3,000 and 1 in 30,000) Severe problems can be associated with allergic reactions (1 in a million) other problems can were noted by the CDC such as Deafness, long term seizures and permanent brain damage. These however are so rare that it is difficult to tell if they are even caused by the vaccines.

What are the dangers of not being immunized?

                The CDC states that diseases such as Polio and Diphtheria are becoming extremely rare in the U.S. thanks to vaccinations against them. The CDC uses the “Stop the leak” metaphor as a way to keep the importance of immunizing. The CDC believes in the eradication of these preventable diseases by eliminating them at the source and to keep on immunizing or otherwise face a resurgence in preventable diseases such as japan did in 1976. Japan in 1974 immunized 80% of it’s population against the virus pertussis (whooping cough) with only 393 cases the following year. In 1976 only 10% were immunized and japan experienced an epidemic of 13,000 cases and 41 deaths in 1981 the Japanese government reinstated vaccinating pertussis the following year cases of whooping cough dropped again. The CDC stands by its mission statement to fight disease and stand by its citizens to protect them from these threats.

 

“Ten Greatest Health Achievements of the 20^th century,” retrieved from CDC.gov http://www.cdc.gov/about/history/tengpha.htm 03/11/13 accessed 2/15/14

“Vaccines are effective,” retrieved from vaccines.gov http://www.vaccines.gov/basics/effectiveness/index.html accessed 2/15/14

“Transmission of Measles,” retrieved from CDC.gov http://www.cdc.gov/measles/about/transmission.html 9/21/09, accessed 2/15/14

Alli, Renee “Measles, Mumps, And Rubella (MMR) Vaccine” retrieved from web.md http://www.webmd.com/children/vaccines/measles-mumps-and-rubella-mmr-vaccine 05/29/12 accessed 2/16/14

“Dr. Wakefield,” http://www.gmc-uk.org/news/7115.asp accessed 2/16/14

“Measles map,” retrieved from Republican hour, http://www.republicanhour.com/wp-content/plugins/akismet/measles-vaccine-history-i9.png accessed 2/16/14

“Why immunize,” retrieved from CDC.gov http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vac-gen/why.htm accessed 2/16/14